The trouble arrived in the male flowers. In March, heat disrupted pollen before harvest crews or shakers had any role to play, leaving California pistachio orchards to carry the consequences into the season.
The crop was already headed for an “off” year, the down phase of pistachios’ alternate-bearing cycle. The additional weather hit has left the 2026 crop forecast at 655 million pounds, compared with the record set the year before.
The damage began at bloom
The heat affected the reproductive timing of the trees: male flowers shed pollen early, and much of that pollen was sterilized. Growers also reported more kernel blanking. The Ag Alert account describes the combination of pollen disruption and blank kernels behind the reduced harvest.
“It’s a challenge for the industry overall because the crop is half of what was expected, but the (grower) price isn’t going to double,”
Jeff Nichols, vice president of supply chain and grower relations with Nichols Farms in Hanford
A better price, fewer pounds
The market has responded with higher grower prices, but the arithmetic is not especially forgiving: a stronger price per pound has to contend with a much smaller volume. That is the gap Nichols points to, rather than a simple question of whether prices have risen.
For an orchard business, the distinction shows up in the year-end ledger. A price increase may improve the return on each delivered pound without restoring the revenue expected from a larger crop; rising operating costs leave less room for that difference to disappear.
The Farm Bureau report puts the season’s strain plainly: this is a short-crop year in which improved prices do not automatically make the crop whole.